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HFF Research Update for July 17, 2015: Flatline

Friday, July 17, 2015
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Weekly insights on current research in the commercial real estate industry from HFF Managing Director of Research Jimmy Hinton. View Daily Rates on the HFF website or access the HFF Daily Rates App in iTunes. In television and film doctors often use a defibrillator to revive a flatlined patient. While the imagery invokes terrific drama, it carries little logic. I am not an expert in etymology but I believe the word "defibrillate" could be broken down into two parts: de-fibrillate, which is to remove fluttering, in this case, within muscle fiber. So a defibrillator might prove strategic when someone is suffering arrhythmia amidst a heart attack. Or, maybe when a stock market is experiencing convulsion. So pardon me for grimacing a little this morning when a CNBC pundit announced the... [Read More]


HFF Research Update for July 15, 2015: Can I Buy You a Drink?

Wednesday, July 15, 2015
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Weekly insights on current research in the commercial real estate industry from HFF Managing Director of Research Jimmy Hinton. View Daily Rates on the HFF website or access the HFF Daily Rates App in iTunes. In the Winter War of 1939, Soviet bombers dropped bombs on Helsinki. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union's foreign minister proclaimed to his own citizens that the war planes were in fact dropping pallets of food to Finnish citizens in a humanitarian mission. Sneering at the propaganda, Finns referred to the deliveries as "Molotov bread baskets" naming them after the Soviet Foreign Minister. Shortly after the bombing subsided the Soviet infantry invaded by land. Necessity being the mother of invention, the Finnish army created a mechanism to engulf armor-plated Soviet tanks in flames – what is now... [Read More]


HFF Research Update for July 10, 2015: CMBS Digest

Friday, July 10, 2015
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Weekly insights on current research in the commercial real estate industry from HFF Managing Director of Research Jimmy Hinton. View Daily Rates on the HFF website or access the HFF Daily Rates App in iTunes. Approximately $27.5 billion of CMBS paper was securitized in the United States last quarter, the second-largest total in a quarter since 2007. Bringing the YTD total to $54.5 billion, CMBS volume is up 33 percent over the same time period in 2014. I would wager this percentage growth will prove exactly par with transaction volumes when Real Capital Analytics prints 2Q figures later this month. Assuming the second half of the year experiences slightly higher origination volumes, which is typical, the CMBS market is on pace to originate $125 billion in 2015 according... [Read More]


HFF Research Update for July 9, 2015: Wilt Chamberlain

Thursday, July 09, 2015
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Weekly insights on current research in the commercial real estate industry from HFF Managing Director of Research Jimmy Hinton. View Daily Rates on the HFF website or access the HFF Daily Rates App in iTunes. On this day in 1968, Wilt Chamberlain was traded from Philadelphia to Los Angeles. Lakers owner Jack Kent Cooke awarded Chamberlain a salary of $250,000 – or 2.5 times that of the previously most highly-paid Laker, Jerry West. It was a record contract in the NBA at the time, and it would be one of several records Chamberlain would assume in his five years in Los Angeles, including 33 consecutive wins, the first ever 69-win season (for which every member of the team was rewarded with a $5 pen set!) and 72.7 percent field goal percentage. ... [Read More]


HFF Research Update for July 6, 2015: Capitulation?

Monday, July 06, 2015
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Weekly insights on current research in the commercial real estate industry from HFF Managing Director of Research Jimmy Hinton. View Daily Rates on the HFF website or access the HFF Daily Rates App in iTunes. Times like these make me very nervous, more because the direction markets give us is unclear. WTI lost almost 8 percent on Monday in a free-fall that accelerated through the trading session and made a native Texan like me shake in his proverbial boots. This feels more like China than Greece, given China’s use of oil is approximately equal to that of the top 10 countries in Europe combined. Another reason this notion carries weight is the selloff in other raw materials, most notably copper.   Below is a YTD look at... [Read More]


HFF Research Update for June 29, 2015: Perspectives

Monday, June 29, 2015
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Weekly insights on current research in the commercial real estate industry from HFF Managing Director of Research Jimmy Hinton. View Daily Rates on the HFF website or access the HFF Daily Rates App in iTunes. Given the ubiquity of the information available, I am not going to endeavor to explain what is happening in Greece. I will however make an attempt to provide some context to the instability it and weakness in China is generating across a global landscape. Shanghai’s equity index finished Monday down 3.34 percent. However, the day was far more volatile with that index’s intraday peak to trough declining 10.8 percent. For some frame of reference, this is the equivalent of the Dow Jones Index declining more than 1,950 points in a matter of hours. ... [Read More]


HFF Research Update for June 26, 2015: A Balloon Below Water

Friday, June 26, 2015
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Weekly insights on current research in the commercial real estate industry from HFF Managing Director of Research Jimmy Hinton. View Daily Rates on the HFF website or access the HFF Daily Rates App in iTunes. Markets have been quite volatile, perhaps necessitating a second rates memo as we close the week. The associated impact on loan underwriting has been less than favorable. Below I’ve mapped the 10-year UST against a 10-year index for each A and BBB corporates – the indices CIOs use for pricing mortgage bonds. The grey bars represent the average spread between the corporates and the 10-year UST. Corporate spreads (unlike CRE capitalization rate spreads) are currently ~180 bps, relatively thin given they are ~80 bps inside of their long term... [Read More]




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